Today, bullish turbulence in the speculative surge on oil $65, $70, $75, and now $80. Would the price of a barrel of oil be about to flare up again? In fact, it was the successive announcements of the White House that set fire to the powders. While the price of Brent had fluctuated since the beginning of the year in a narrow band around $ 67 a barrel, a first cap was crossed on April 6 after the announcement of sanctions against Russia: the course is anchored then above 70 dollars. Then it's early May, the announcement of the withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear deal and the 75 dollars is sunk.
Excluding the hitch related to the Great Recession of 2008-2009, growth is at a rate of 1.4% per year. And it is not about to stop considering the growing needs of the emerging countries to which is added for 2018 the acceleration of global growth. If the visibility is good on the demand, on the other hand, it is the total blur on the offer. On the one hand, there is the Oil production curve of the United States: at nearly 11 million barrels/day. It is at its record level and over one year, the increase reaches 1.9 million Oil barrels. That is more than what normally largely offset the additional demand estimated at 1.3 million barrels. Except that we must also integrate the implementation of production quotas decided by OPEC and 10 countries outside the cartel led by Russia. Decided at the end of 2016, the agreement has already been extended twice. It is now running until the end of 2018. The challenge is to reduce production by 1.8 million barrels a day. And once is not custom, the commitments are generally held, a respect facilitated it is true by the collapse of the Venezuelan production.
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