Abort no-deal Brexit! At least for now. Theresa May has agreed to the six Month extension until October 31st. Whether she can last that long, who knows, this longer extension may have reduced the risk of an unwanted no-deal Brexit; however, there is still no clear direction as to what will happen or what should happen.
The Halloween Extension – A Horror Movie?
After initially declining Theresa May’s request for an extension until June; the EU leaders have given May more than she asked for, by extending the deadline to Halloween. Now whether this is going to be a good thing or a horror story is still to be seen. Nevertheless, a longer extension may massively reduce the chances of a no-deal Brexit, which was supposed to have taken place on April 12. So will the Uk exit on Halloween? Maybe! Then again History has proven that another extension is not entirely off the table.
Is the extension Flexible?
Yes, the Article 50 extension to October 31st was offered to Theresa May
as a ‘flexible extension’ considering they can agree on a withdrawal agreement well before the new deadline; however, a progression review will take place in June. Therefore Theresa May has up to 6 months to reconsider her withdrawal deal or stick to it. That said Donald Tusk (European Council President) did not say anything about no further extensions, but he did specify that the UK should not waste this time given to them and the ball is entirely in their court during these six months.
However, as the EU rules apply, if the UK does not hold European Parliament elections this May, then they will be forced to leave on the 1st of June with a no deal (no-deal Brexit). At the same time, the government makes it clear that they will continue to prepare for a possible no-deal Brexit.
Talks with Labour continue.
In an attempt to achieve a compromise on the best way to discontinue the deadlock in Parliament, the government continues the talks with labour. According to Labour, in a short meeting Between Mrs May and Mr Corbyn, May expressed how there had to be a two-way compromise to make achieving an agreement much more accessible and avoid a no-deal Brexit. On that note as if there is not enough Pressure on Theresa May, word around the block says that she may be ushered out of office.
Theresa May Ushered out of office?
Even as gossip floats around about escorting Mrs May out of office, who will take her place? At this time it looks like no one wants to be in her shoes. No one is coming forth with a better solution, not Boris, Johnson, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Liz Truss or any of the potential candidates.
No deal Brexit averted - But what next?
If there is no clear plan by October 31st, legally the default is a no-deal Brexit. Even though some EU leaders that have had enough of Brexit would prefer this to another extension; the Prime Minister and Parliament are firmly against a no-deal Brexit. Therefore MPs and Theresa May would opt for another the expansion over a no-deal Brexit any day considering there is no set agreement by Halloween.
So now what follows is;
1. Continued talks between labour and the Conservatives
2. Parliament’s Easter recess on April 23rd- MPs return.
3. Local elections in Nothern Ireland and England happen on May 2nd
4. If MPs do not back Theresa May's agreement, European Parliament Elections will take place in the UK on May 23rd.
5. And finally October 31st the UK will leave the EU (Brexit); that’s if MPs have not backed the withdrawal agreement before this deadline.
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